dc CB: can you elaborate re: "today’s novel flow into reverse repos"? purrrty pls? :)
dc CB 01:50:46 GMT - 10/17/2022
“Traders are fearful of missing the turn, the bounce, the Fed pivot. It is all micro focus; they’re chasing their tails. They underestimate the impact of rapidly contracting liquidity; today’s novel flow into reverse repos. They miss things like UK pension margin calls. No one appreciates the risk that the market runs out of oxygen.”
We're Close To A Broad Liquidation Point For Markets
dc CB 00:48:50 GMT - 10/17/2022
Zero Hedge --head today
"This Is What Annihilation Looks Like": Biden Export Controls 'Wreaking Havoc' On China's Chip Industry
==To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship."
Remember the Santa rally?
time for puts...or calls...
Saudis Announce $400M In Ukraine Aid After Biden Said US 'Re-Evaluating' Ties With Kingdom
White House recently blasted OPEC as acting "against the interests of the American people"...
Morgan Stanley: Trouble In The Kingdom Is Just Starting
Questions remain; the UK Prime Minister stated that she still desires a "low tax" economy, and ..
GVI Forex21:40:52 GMT - 10/16/2022
(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever
It seems like an age away, but whatever optimism investors had at the start of the quarter for a broad-based market rebound looks to have completely evaporated.
10-yr 4.022; UK 10-YR 4.371%
-
GBP 1.1177
the next bet is on liz's life-span as "leader"
PGH TB 05:07:00 GMT - 10/16/2022
"She said she was "incredibly sorry" to sack Kwarteng as chancellor, calling him a "great friend."
________________
He dindoo NUFFIN. He bee a goot boi n sheet
dc CB 17:41:00 GMT - 10/15/2022
Fed's Yellen expects no new financial crisis in 'our lifetimes'
LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that she does not believe that there will be another financial crisis for at least as long as she lives, thanks largely to reforms of the banking system since the 2007-09 crash.
“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” Yellen said at a question-and-answer event in London.
“You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be,” she said.
June 27, 2017
dc CB 21:00:46 GMT - 10/14/2022
Mtl JP 17:48 GMT
hey... untreated hyper-actives
Yeh, but, one day the Fed will Pivot, the next there will be relentless rate hikes. Maybe it's Lack of 'can't get my script filled', that's triggers all the sell-offs----"UnEXpected" Time Mag's WORD of THE YEAR.
dc CB 18:57:32 GMT - 10/14/2022
CME censored Yen futures--------(inverse of USD/JPY)
Has a date with that 6656 green line----
looks like a LT Trend---Not moved by 'spekulators. A train that shud have been boarded in the spring----but then at GVI the 'spekulators' were busy with 'Sell USD/JPY' and proudly anncing the pips the managed to grab.
Mtl JP 18:34:44 GMT - 10/14/2022
suzuki:
yap yap yap ... fluctuations are "extremely concerning"
yap yap yap ... watching with a high sense of vigilance
yap yap yap ... will take "decisive" steps against rapid, volatile movements in the currency market driven by speculators
so the Qtn is ... is the movement rapid and volatile and if so is it driven by speculators. taking or not "decisive" steps will provide the A
Mtl JP 18:26:00 GMT - 10/14/2022
USDYEN 118.82
yen plumbing new lows
-
$54 + billions later, players making fun of Japan’s finance minister Suzuki
Mtl JP 17:48:26 GMT - 10/14/2022
hey... untreated hyper-actives be good on the one-min-tick-highspeed trading desk. no logic, no rationale just speed. and thrill
dc CB 17:28:32 GMT - 10/14/2022
big trouble for trading desks
expect more fat-finger trades---lol
also may explain WTF is happening in the Markit these days.
The country is experiencing a nationwide shortage of Adderall, the drug used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)
'apparently there’s an adderall shortage?? literally called 10+ pharmacies today & no one can fill my prescription 😭😭
Truss said her new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would help her succeed in her mission to spur economic growth.
She said she was "incredibly sorry" to sack Kwarteng as chancellor, calling him a "great friend."
Mtl JP 17:03:39 GMT - 10/14/2022
skill vs bombast
-
"I'm absolutely determined to see through what I promised - to deliver a higher growth, more prosperous United Kingdom to see us though the storm we face," - Truss
Mtl JP 16:55:09 GMT - 10/14/2022
GBPUSD 1.1165
-
looks like players having doubts
feels like its ready to poop
Mtl JP 16:49:08 GMT - 10/14/2022
USDCAD 1.3865
-
earlier pop towards 1.40 could make one suspect something wrong "at home" . BoC's macklem yaks at 4pm later today, likely to remind players of yet another hike (and like more moRE).
I am thinking the canadian is underappreciated atm
Mtl JP 14:02:36 GMT - 10/13/2022
GBP 1.12
-
now that puppy has rallied some - and pulled back off its HoD - 1.1180 will be needed to hold S if it is to keep its new-found bull legs
Mtl JP 13:29:19 GMT - 10/13/2022
(Reuters) Yellen says Russian oil price cap in $60 range would allow Moscow some profit
...“The objective is to protect the world from the consequences of a global spike in oil prices,” Yellen said of the price cap ...
***
After earlier threatening other gov'ts that she and her allies 'Will Not Be Indifferent' to Those Who Undermine Russian sanctions" and promised that they will face consequences if they undermine them, with honey on lips and poison in her heart
her trip - what is wrong with zoom instead ? - allegedly “It illustrates the close bonds between our two countries, from the Quad partnership to our strong bilateral economic relationship, and the cultural ties from the Indian diaspora in the US,” she said
Heel India! ya hear ?! “The United States and India are both extremely important to the world economy, and we must continue to work together on the economic development and cooperation that has made our partnership so strong,” Yellen said
Mtl JP 12:50:30 GMT - 10/13/2022
EURO 9639
-
ECB's "aggressive" rate hike fully priced in now
sub 9650 opens 9550 ish
Mtl JP 04:13:19 GMT - 10/13/2022
CB 16:08 / GAP plays are my weakness. Now POOF !
hope you made good moola
keep em coming
dc CB 23:27:47 GMT - 10/12/2022
dc CB 19:57 GMT 10/11/2022
More scarey sheit.
==========================
FRBNY - Rev REPO----The 100+ Cardinals
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hub
-------------------------------------------------------
The Fed Is Now Paying $500 Million To A Handful Of Banks Every Day, And Suddenly Has A Very Big Problem
Oct 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.
Thursday, Oct. 13. 08:30 Eastern, 1230 GMT.
That is the moment U.S. September inflation data will be released, and when central banks around the world will have a clearer idea if they will need to wade into the foreign exchange market to support their currencies.
Russia is ready to deliver additional volumes of natural gas to Europe this winter, but the ball is in the EU’s court to decide, Putin said, as carried by the Russian news agency Interfax.
Putin also said that repairing the Nord Stream 1 and 2 lines that were found to have been sabotaged would only make sense if they will be used later,
the Treasury sold $32BN in 10Y notes in another very poor auction.
The high yield of 3.930% was not only 60bps higher than last month's 3.33%, it was also just shy of the cycle high hit in June 2009, when the 10Y priced at 3.99%. Notably, the auction tailed then When Issued 3.914% by 1.6bps, an ugly result but it could have been worse: last month's tail was 2.7bps, and amazingly, 7 of the past 8 auctions have tailed!
an ugly, tailing auction although it probably could have been worse, and likely will be tomorrow during the sale of 30Y paper especially if the CPI print comes hotter than expected.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
Remember that 2010 movie starring Russell Crowe and Elizabeth Banks with a nail-biting end? Well, the Bank of England's Andrew Bailey has crowed, sort of making clear the Liz Truss government can't bank on it defending markets from the fallout of an ill-conceived economic revival plan for more than three days.
there is a bit more 'tumbling' than just the Pound.....
The Bailey Ultimatum sees late session dash for cash - Newsquawk US Market Wrap
dc CB 19:57:14 GMT - 10/11/2022
More scarey sheit.
Remarkably, this was the first time the Fed sent dollars to the SNB this year, and the first time the Fed used the swap line in size (besides a token amount to the ECB every now and then)!
The next logical question obviously is: why does Switzerland suddenly have a financial institution needing $3 billion in cheap (3.33%) overnight funding. We don't know the answer, but have a pretty good idea of who the culprit may be.
WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told pension fund managers to finish rebalancing their positions by Friday when the British central bank is due to end its emergency support programme for the county's fragile bond market.
BoE's Bailey spoke in Washington this afternoon, initially warning that "market volatility went beyond bank stress tests" (which is scary), then reinforcing the "serious risk to UK financial system stability," noting that the buying program is "temporary".
But the piece de resistance was his noting that BoE will be out by the end of the week, adding a simple threat...
“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now,” Bailey said at an event in Washington on Tuesday.
“You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability, is that it (intervention) is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”
Or what?
_______________________________________________
Our tweet says it all...(Roughly translated: 'you have 3 days to sell everything')...
Was his teleprompter hacked? This is the dumbest possible thing you can say https://t.co/R9xIVOdDZP
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 11, 2022
really ...
too soon or too early
-
Websites for over a dozen U.S. airports were impacted.
It's still "too soon to know" whether the Russian government was behind Monday's cyberattacks on over a dozen U.S. airports, according to White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
Medicore, Tailing 3Y Auction Sees Jump In Dealer Award
With Treasury prices and yields gyrating like high-beta penny stocks now that liquidity in the world's "deepest" bond market is practically gone, bond traders were casting nervous eyes at the results of today's 3Y auction results, the first coupon offering of the week
there were no fireworks this time even if the auction was decidedly of the subpar variety: pricing at a high yield of 4.318%, the highest yield going back to pre-Lehman levels, today's sale of $40BN in 3Y paper tailed the When Issued 4.310% by 0.8bps,
mester says
-
Oct 11 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Tuesday that even with a large amount of rate rises this year, the central bank has yet to get surging inflation under control and will need to press forward with tightening monetary policy.
EURO 9717
-
MY opinion of how the market is viewing this puppy:
- no enthusiasm for buying this cur
- ecb's dance and tralala about what they keep calling "aggressive rate hike" (on Oct 27) is getting barely a polite applause and some sour lemon smiles, a cringey comedy
97 Support at better risk of busting than say 1.00 Res
Mtl JP 14:50:49 GMT - 10/11/2022
today's pollution alerts:
-
11:30 yellen peddles off some paper (for ref 10yr pays 3.916)
noon: mester
12:45 jordan
2pm cunliffe
half hour later bailey
6pm ellis
6pm villeroy
dc CB 13:50:02 GMT - 10/11/2022
GAP.
Dec Wheat
Mtl JP 10:29:05 GMT - 10/11/2022
finite planet. finite room for people. finite ressources. finite ability for growth. alleged by some.
-
here is World Bank President David Malpass and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva screaming that
- it is essential to increase collaboration with the private sector and leverage funds “on scale” to help meet the needs.
the need ? to “get the big, scary danger of debt crisis under control”.
How ? " joined forces, if we act together and central banks to continue their efforts to contain inflation and working hard to free up more funds".
How much more funds ? $3 to $6 trillion and leverage funds “on scale”
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is prepared and released by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). The report is released monthly, and provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton.
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
Mtl JP 23:22:23 GMT - 10/10/2022
GAP
politico-military induced gap. monster now
an opportunity
this one' s short carry is reasonable
Mtl JP 11:26:27 GMT - 10/10/2022
Nobel Prize
2022 Nobel Economics Prize
Prize motivation: “for research on banks and financial crises”
1/3 to Ben S. Bernanke
Mtl JP 23:16:48 GMT - 10/09/2022
Opec oil production cuts bad for global economy, says Yellen - FT
US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said the move by Opec+ to cut oil production was “unhelpful and unwise” for the global economy, particularly emerging markets already struggling with high energy prices.
Mtl JP 14:51:49 GMT - 10/09/2022
spy vs spy
-
Oct. 9, 2022 Andrew Keshner reports:
Over 50% of CEOs say they’re considering cutting jobs over the next 6 months — and remote workers may be the first go to
wsj Oct. 9 Allison Prang reports:
More Businesses Want to Hire People With Criminal Records Amid Tight Job Market
- Companies including banks, pharmacy chains and railroads have recognized so-called second-chance hiring can help them find more workers
soooo couth: criminals & banks
Mtl JP 12:24:18 GMT - 10/09/2022
DLRx 112.60
as rags increase chorus about DLR's height
-
reports Greg Robb:
Not enough data to change his mind on need for rate hike at early November meeting - Waller
- “Before the next meeting on Nov. 1-2, there is not going to be a lot of new data to cause a big adjustment to how I see inflation, employment and the rest of the economy holding up. I don’t think that this extent of data is likely to be sufficient to significantly alter my view on the economy,” “I expect most policymakers feel the same way,” - Waller
reports Jeffry Bartash
Kashkari says inflation still too high for Fed to mull pause in interest-rate hikes
“We are seeing almost no evidence that underlying inflation is coming down,” “I am not comfortable saying we are going to pause” until inflation clearly begins to decline.
on recession avoiding odds
“My answer is I hope so. We are going to try. But we have to bring inflation down,” kash
Mtl JP 10:42:13 GMT - 10/09/2022
AUDUSD 0.6361
(maybe) reaping covid-19 benefits in australia
-
Deceased COVID-19 vaccine recipient payments and funeral costs
"In cases involving death you may be eligible for payment and support for funeral costs. We’ll make this payment to the deceased’s estate."
EURO 9802
-
puppy making H&S structure on daily
down break of shoulder would open 95-ish trgt
Mtl JP 21:51:39 GMT - 10/06/2022
US 10-YR 3.828
some new losers in the making
-
* cnbc - Friday’s jobs report could be a case where good news isn’t really good
* CNBC - Why the Federal Reserve won't be so quick to ease up on its fight against inflation
The consequences for the Fed not bringing inflation under control could be severe.
* A weak jobs report could excite investors. But the Federal Reserve has its eye on only one thing.
The financial markets have been spooked by the aggressiveness of the Federal Reserve, particularly about its focus on the potential for enduring economic pain and rising unemployment. Yet the Fed’s plan has not changed much
* Bank of America says - The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates 'until the labor market cracks,'
Mtl JP 21:21:28 GMT - 10/06/2022
brother waller says
-
* doesn’t expect jobs data Friday will alter his view on need for more interest rate hikes and
* throws cold water on Wall Street notion that concern over financial stability will cause Fed to pivot on interest rates
dc CB 14:35:28 GMT - 10/06/2022
Michael Every of Rabobank
The near-term US policy responses underway are to double down on what is not working: ................
Do you see the geopolitical and geoeconomic tectonic plates shifting? Do you see how this influences markets? If not, you are in the wrong game.
No Fed pivot is possible against a backdrop where oil prices march higher on supply destruction in response to demand destruction as monetary policy is tightened.
Ridk on crew is grasping art any chance to rally (stocks bounced, dollar dipped briefly on weekly jobless claims)
Mtl JP 05:59:32 GMT - 10/06/2022
87.70 wti / 93.40 brent
biden fuming at no respect; releasing 10 million barrels from low low SPR
-
cnbc - OPEC+ to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day to shore up prices, defying U.S. pressure
Oil prices have fallen to roughly $80 a barrel from more than $120 in early June amid growing fears about the prospect of a global economic recession.
Belgrade Knez 14:09:01 GMT - 10/05/2022
london red 13:48 GMT October 5, 2022
red, is Polish CB intervention important for their currency only or for euro in general too?
Mtl JP 13:59:55 GMT - 10/05/2022
for who does the bell toll
what is her POOF! eta ?
-
CNN 1 hour ago
Liz Truss gave a lackluster speech to a party that’s given up the will to live
The empty chairs all around the hall for Liz Truss's debut party conference speech as Conservative leader said a lot about the chaotic past four days. The atmosphere of gloom that has shrouded the International Conference Centre in Birmingham since Sunday suggests that the party,
Mtl JP 13:53:07 GMT - 10/05/2022
GBP 112.95
-
stall around 115 and now sub 113.50 priceaction now with a bear tilt
S around 112.60/50
london red 13:48:26 GMT - 10/05/2022
polish cb saying may intervene in fx mkt. havent seen any sign of it yet. i expect they may be waiting for when winds are blowing their way.
Mtl JP 12:36:19 GMT - 10/05/2022
catching up with the lag
-
of a blast from the past 2 months ago:
A tragicomedy in two acts
those german export numbers (in the manuf PMI) yesterday
were .... u g l y
maybe signaling something
Mtl JP 10:55:05 GMT - 10/05/2022
DLRx 110.73
crystall ball visions: no guarantee
-
bloomberg.com
* Dollar was due for a ‘take-profit move,’ CIBC’s Bipan Rai says
* Greenback strength gauge down 3% since last week’s record high
The dip in the dollar, fueled by hopes of less aggressive monetary tightening from the world’s major central banks, may not last long.
will the CBs - and especially the FED - heed
what the UNCTAD said:
-
Instead of increasing interest rates to fight inflation, policy makers should put in place price caps funded by one-off taxes on unusually large profits being made by energy companies, lead author Richard Kozul-Wright told the Wall Street Journal.
spy vs spy
it is all a coincidence:
-
Reuter - LNG markets may tighten further in 2023, IEA's Birol says
Reuters - Global gas markets to remain tight next year amid supply squeeze-IEA
Reuters - Kremlin: U.S. raised LNG prices and sales after Nord Stream gas leaks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday
Reuters - More U.S. LNG heads to Europe despite output constraints
U.S. producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) boosted exports to Europe in September even as a plant outage kept overall shipments below the average for the first eight months of 2022
Continent' winter survival - nothing less sherlock!
Sounds like more trading opps in European equities (down) and in European energy (UP)
Javier Blas is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities:
-
The continent still needs to reduce gas consumption by a lot if it’s going to survive the winter.
If Europe was a school student, last week it sat its first exam in Energy Savings 101. It failed. And that doesn’t bode well for much tougher tests to come in January.
Despite strong imports of liquefied natural gas to replace Russian shipments, Europe needs to reduce gas consumption — by a lot — if it’s going to make it through the winter. Extra supply won’t be enough. Conservation is absolutely paramount.
World Economic Forum
The international organization for public private cooperation.
Attention Peasants
"might" is not "will"
-
* Chief Economists are mostly in agreement that the outlook for the economy is bleak and that recession is likely.
* This new reality will take its toll on inequality and widening societal gaps.
* Four experts explain how policies might address the immediate crisis with an eye to beefing up resilience in the long term.
DLRx 111.75
-
Puppy took a hasty kneecap earlier.
Will it hold S around here OR will it not ... is the 64K Q
I have my doubts about a tilt ; even more doubt about a deep/er tilt
Mtl JP 14:14:58 GMT - 10/03/2022
GBP 1.1260 ish
truss is a "winner" (i.e. an embarrassment)
-
her economic policy is a not inspiring players and UK economy in grand scheme of things is is tilting into the toilet
Pond is uP with a bit of an uP bias while N of 1.12 which is probably necessary if the puppy is to climb to 1.14 and more.
This pup is currently struggling to regain confidence from players.
Mtl JP 10:19:25 GMT - 10/02/2022
Hk Ab - it is the "cap on company revenues" that miffs me
not profits but revenue
does the eu want mass turfing in the energy sector
Hk Ab 22:00:03 GMT - 10/01/2022
Have Europeans become this dumb after following the path US lay down for them? Are they that naive to believe that pt 2 and 3 will solve the problems?
If I were those companies, let’s STOP the work and see what’s going on……especially in winter.
Mtl JP 20:01:02 GMT - 10/01/2022
lets see if she ll ape liz
as here comes the other peasant populist with a vow:
Reuters October 1, 2022 - Italy's Meloni vows government action to tackle soaring energy prices
Mtl JP 17:48:02 GMT - 10/01/2022
ft.com August 29, 2022 - EU to unveil emergency measures to curb soaring energy prices
-
euronews 30/09/2022 - EU energy ministers approved on Friday a first package of emergency measures (applause) "Today the EU managed to deliver," "Today the EU managed to deliver," said Jozef Síkela, the Czech Republic's minister for industry and trade (more applause) but ... "We need to continue our work," Síkela said. "We're in an energy war with Russia." "Let me be very clear: we will have to go much faster, much further and make other proposals," piped in his French counterpart, Agnčs Pannier-Runache ... /..
Headline:
-
"Inflation is forcing people to use up their savings in a bad sign for the economy"
Cash ... will soon - if not already - be King
jkt abel 11:45:54 GMT - 09/30/2022
dont write off the Japs yet, they know their game, been doing that for decades
hk ab 11:43:51 GMT - 09/30/2022
Usd
swiss frank 11:25 GMT 09/30/2022
----------------------------------------
Billions thanks and top trade as usual :)
My view is similar, but I think yen may improve a bit after tourism reopens. Tbh, their industries have mostly been replaced by China and Korea already and cars by Tesla.
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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