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December Begins
San Francisco MONEDGE 19:03 GMT 12/02/2023  - My Profile
November 2023 was fascinating in terms of global economic and market related activities. Trying to make a US Dollar or a Swedish Krone out of it was an environment for those who can remain reasonably calm during volatility. Markets remain subject to sudden change due to turbulent geopolitical, economic and conflict related conditions.

One of the components of our system includes algorithmic cycle analysis. It is a projection based on existing market flows and the probabilities of them sustaining. The results for a few markets looking forward are :

Gold

Likely to pause its strong run from that ended the week and settle toward the 2070 region before seeing another wave of buying transpire, which may or may not challenge the highs of 12/1. The primary flow is the buy side.

Euro

Likely to pause its primary sell side cycle in the coming week at some point while the market approaches 1.0800.

US Dollar

Likely to pause into the 102.60 area before seeing buying interest develop. The primary flow is the sell side overall.

Yen

Likely to see further buy side interest develop. We commented the week prior that a buying would likely develop. The primary flow is the buy side remains the buy side overall to this point.

British Sterling

Likely to see limited sell side interest develop only to be followed by continued buy side interest. The primary cycle is the buy side to this point.

For further perspective visit www.monedge.net.

mkt
Mtl JP 12:31 GMT 12/02/2023  - My Profile
Gold and historians at
The Wall Street Journal:

Gold Futures Settle at Record High to End the Week
Gold finished Friday at a record high, boosted by sliding interest rates, central bank purchases and war. Front-month futures on the precious metal rose 1.6% Friday and settled at $2,071 a troy ounce, their highest settlement since August 6, 2020, when they closed at $2,051.

mkt
Mtl JP 12:09 GMT 12/02/2023  - My Profile
Cop28 and nuclear
Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy
02 December 2023
Recognizing the key role of nuclear energy in achieving global bla bla bla
-
Uranium Spot Price is at a current level of 57.65, up from 53.20 last month and up from 41.30 one year ago.

Uranium Spot Price (I:USPNM) 57.65 USD/lb for Oct 2023


In General
dc CB 20:05 GMT 12/01/2023
you have to be of an age.....................
I'll leave it up to you to put 2 and 2 together.

GWE

(link to source-- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWcJTQBXJnA)


song plus the blonde too


mkt
dc CB 19:46 GMT 12/01/2023
ZH con't)

That's just the start. As Bloomberg notes, gold calls were also in strong demand, both for futures and the biggest ETF tied to the metal, as bullion marched closer to a record high Friday. As shown in the chart below................


Then again, if the Fed is indeed set to cut rates as soon as March, and then proceed with more QE which will be inevitable to monetize the soaring US budget deficit and exploding interest payments, then we are set for new all time highs in everything - gold, bitcoin, stocks... oh and oil; because after the current bout of CTA selling is finally over, oil and commodities will be the next asset class to hit record highs at which point Powell's mutation into Arthur Burns will be complete,

___confidence in the Fed will be crushed.............

Trading Signals
GVI Forex Blog 19:30 GMT 12/01/2023

Trading Signals


mkt
dc CB 19:27 GMT 12/01/2023
Powell, You Have A Problem: Gold Hits All Time High As Markets Price In Rate Cuts As Soon As March

... the Fed chair appeared largely nonchallant, and in his fireside chat earlier today, what the market focused on was Powell's comment that rates are "well into restrictive territory" which not only assured there would be no more rate hikes, but steamrolled Powell's other, hawkish warning....

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-you-have-problem-gold-hits-all-time-high-markets-price-rate-cuts-soon-march
____________________________________________________________

Powell: 'they won't be tagging me 'Chairman *Co#k Block* in the Fin Press this time.

The Powell 'Boner' replaces the FED Put


mkt
Mtl JP 17:17 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
jerome says
-
walking on eggs
as he is answering if there is a target on labor force participation

completely ignoring the "sacrifice ratio" and the

FRED Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000)
Observation:
Oct 2023: 99,914

FRED Economic Data


mkt
San Francisco Monedge 17:13 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
JP - female dominated quantum physics as applied to global markets results in a confirmation of random walk theory only to be discounted by the law of averages and stochastic ebb and flow. So balance is the key. It always returns to the median. ;)

mkt
San Francisco Monedge 17:04 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Many markets such as oil and gold are dominated by CTA's which function primarily on algorithmic systems, with about 68% employing additional discretionary management. Highly momentum oriented.

An old friend who was an old school CTA lamented how bare the floors were becoming of humans entering the early 2000's. The writing on the wall was visible.

Our read for Usd/Jpy is at 10% now at 147. If buying takes hold those algorithms will amplify it.

mkt
Mtl JP 17:02 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Monedge 16:15 can you expand on the last sentence plz

mkt
San Francisco Monedge 16:15 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Our # did stabilize in the 30% read but it is hardly inconceivable that selling accelerates again. So for those late to the party in what has been rather volatile intra-day up/down spikes it looks like there could be another opportunity to short again around the 147.70 region a bit later.

Purely considering the war effect perhaps logic dictates being short usd/chf into the weekend.

That said, all it takes is for a female to disturb physics.

mkt
GVI Forex 16:08 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Powell prepared remarks risks on both sides of rates are becoming more balanced.

mkt
Mtl JP 15:37 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
almost like a Nature's dictate
count them:
-
1.0844ish to 1.1017 took 13 days.
1.1017 to 1.0844-ish took 3 days

what Nature's dictate ?
3 / 13 = .23
how about the famous rabbit population cyclicality that grandmothers refer to eh ?

mkt
San Francisco Monedge 15:28 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Hi JP - Usd/Jpy is at 30%. Quite negative with room to continue. Entering 147.20 area it could stabilize however. It is only a coinidence the number and price are close this time.

mkt
Mtl JP 15:22 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Monedge -- what might you be willing to share about the number being spat by your "algorithm model employs a series of primarily momentum driven factors" as market is balancing on 1.0850

very much tia!

mkt
Mtl JP 15:08 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
powell's .fireside chat" will be off prepared notes
wild card may his subsequent Q&A

the roundtable at 14:00 will be last yakyak before blackout leading to the 13th dec fomc

mkt
GVI Forex 15:01 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Weakee than expected ISM (unch), prices paid up, employment down

mkt
Mtl JP 15:01 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
on deck
-
10:00 - goolsbee
10:00 - ISM manf
11:00 - powell fireside yak
14:00 - powell & cook yak around table

mkt
Mtl JP 14:48 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
EURO 1.0851

50 is a bit of a Sup if it gives 25 is next

mkt
Mtl JP 14:45 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile


Looking at
-
10-yr 4.338% and DLRx at 103.57

red line on chart = 200day

EURUSD
GVI Forex 14:45 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
Dovish comments from ECBs Villeroy, new low for EURUSD

EUR crosses getting whacked.

e/$
plovdiv gotin 14:06 GMT 12/01/2023
E/$ up/dn 855/915

EURUSD
Belgrade Knez 13:17 GMT 12/01/2023


also, ystd closed below TL and today bounced off of it ..... 50% on daily at 1.0862

EURUSD
Belgrade Knez 13:10 GMT 12/01/2023


previous month closed below lower channel TL .... hopefully new month stays below it and continue down

Mkt
GVI Forex 12:16 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:

Heads up

ISM is expected to rebound as last months reading was held down by the auto strikes but still remain below 59.

Mkt
Mtl JP 11:40 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
nb about inflation:
-
one of inflation's features is that
it is cumulative

ex.: 3% annual inflation means that
something that cost $100 at beginning of yr 1
will cost $109.41 at end of yr 3

and that is what gets the peasants' goat.
the "policy experts" worry about that as they monitor "anchored expectaion" polling

Mkt
Mtl JP 11:34 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
.

By Nick Timiraos


Mkt
Mtl JP 11:26 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
houston .... is "while maintaining public guidance that the next move is more likely to be a hike rather than a cut."

a communications / perceptions breakdown ?

Mkt
GVI Forex 11:17 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
MARKET CHATTER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Fed rate hikes are probably over but officials are reluctant to say so via WSJs Timiraos; on track to hold rates steady at the December gathering while maintaining public guidance that the next move is more likely to be a hike rather than a cut.

Source:

Newsquawk.com


Mkt
Mtl JP 10:21 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
saving myself typing
-
Market pushback on central banks' rates view just got louder
LONDON (Reuters) - A big disconnect between financial markets and central banks has just got deeper, with traders ramping up their bets on interest rate cuts in the United States and Europe as evidence grows that inflationary pressures are fast abating.

Money markets are now pricing in over 100 basis points apiece of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank next year, and have this week shifted the expected timing of their first moves firmly forward into the first half of 2024.

Markets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. Just a few weeks ago, a first cut was seen in June.

Bets for a March cut have

also shot up, with traders pricing in nearly a 50% chance, versus 35% earlier this week.


Mkt
Mtl JP 10:12 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
lets see ..
-
1) increasing market conviction that the Fed is DONE raising interest rates.

2) increasing market expectation that FED will start cutting interest rates in 2024

The game
will be about re-pricing the current when expectation of cuts
i.e gaming the timing.

Mkt
Mtl JP 09:52 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
preparing to game policymaker
-
what does jerome need to be seen to say

what is jerome likely to say

Mkt
GVI 08:13 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
ALERT
Entry: Target: Stop:

Fed Chair Powell speaks twice today including a fireside chat at 16:00GMT and a roundtable discussion at 19:00GMT,, both at Speilman College.

Mkt
GVI Forex 07:38 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

With a blockbuster November in the rear view mirror, investors are gearing up for a bright start to December in Europe, full of expectations that central banks will soon start cutting rates, although a "fireside chat" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day could spoil the party.

Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets


INFLATION
Mtl JP 04:05 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile
skipping the obvious "If interest rates do not start to be lower"

How about this juicy investing plum ?

In the meantime... I am from the gov't and I here to help


INFLATION
Mtl JP 03:37 GMT 12/01/2023  - My Profile


dc CB so what, d'u think, is next ?

tia

INFLATION
dc CB 23:45 GMT 11/30/2023
JP--
remember, back then it was left to Traditional News-- trusted news ogs-
broadast-CBS, NBC, ABC, print, WasPost, New York Times---magazines, to set the narrative.

The big freeze of 1977


Mkt
Hk Ab 22:37 GMT 11/30/2023
Gold lying? Or XAG?

INFLATION
Mtl JP 22:31 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
CB 19:56 thanks for that look-ahead.
Not that I have been able to juice much if any profit from the Polar Vortex - tuff puppy trade profitably.

[Forex View] Will There Be Dollar Selling for Month-End?
Mtl JP 22:22 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
GVI Forex 13:41 any take-away from your "I asked" research ?
tia

INFLATION
dc CB 19:56 GMT 11/30/2023
Winter is coming and it's going to be cold, very cold.
________________________________________________________

around the Nation's Capital---Normal temps for late Nov average mid 50s F
Tues and yesterday ---- the Temps were 30 degrees Below that normal range.
In the 20s.

Today it's back in the 50s. Expect to hear about "the Polar Vortex" later this winter as Temps drop to those not seen since the late 70s. When the "Climate Change" fear porn industry was touting The New Ice Age.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Great Freeze Of 1977: Remembering The Chesapeake Bay's Mini Ice Age
"That was a brutal winter. We had something like 58 straight days of below freezing temperatures between mid-December and mid-February,"

Chesapeake Bay Frozen


EURUSD
Mtl JP 19:27 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
EURO 1.0889
-
POOF 1.0915 and 1.09
below: 1.0875 ding ding
kitchin kitching

mkt
San Francisco Monedge 17:51 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
Our colleagues prefer the sell side of March 10yr futures above 110'00.

mkt
San Francisco Monedge 17:47 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
Short Euro is a preference overall but with Eur/Jpy gaining momentum against the grain (our primarily momentum driven model is at 55% which is a sell from much earlier in a decline) patience may be a virtue for a little bit longer today if adding to the short side.

For further perspective visit www.monedge.net

mkt
San Francisco Monedge 17:24 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
In our experience while balancing options contracts for various markets in the past, S/P 500 being the most prevalent, was the good CTA's, brokers, and institutions you could see on your screen had already handled month end and expiry rollovers prior to the last day of the month or the expiry.

They are simply running good positions and continuing or hedging for a variety of reasons, including client agendas.

The rest are trying to figure out how to dress up rolling losses or keep unrealized losses off the books. Often they are forced to wait until the latter part of the day.

mkt
GVI Forex 16:01 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
EURGBP fixing order (sell)

See my earlier post

INFLATION
PAR 15:12 GMT 11/30/2023
Opec+ to spoil the " inflation is coming down"party.

Winter is coming and it's going to be cold, very cold.




EURUSD
GVI Forex 15:05 GMT 11/30/2023  - My Profile
Low was around 1.0892 - not much of a stop hunt


INFLATION
PAR 14:50 GMT 11/30/2023
Higher oil prices as always will lead again to HIGHER INFLATION.

SELL US TREASURIES. No rate cuts with higher crude prices.


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