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Thursday November 3, 2022 - 13:32:44 GMT -

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[Inside Forex] Is USDJPY Headed for 160+

With USDJPY trading at levels not seen in over 30 years, trying to forecast a top in this pair seems more guesswork than science. However, with that said, one of our long-time and highly respected forex forum members has a view and a reason why USDJPY is headed higher. However, note his warning to day traders as fx movements are rarely a one-way street.

swiss frank  12:14:18 GMT - 11/03/2022  

No question at least in my mind that usd/jpy is totally on track for at least 165. Maybe. That said, if you have to pay attention to daily p/l swings you can't enter indiscriminately at any level. Duh, right?. If you can, no worries. In time it will get there. Why? 1. Monthly chart long term break out measuring objective. 2. Yield cap got a mention the other day but letting that go is a real double edged sword given the public finance situation. (either way they're f'cked) 3. US/JPY yield differentials only going one way. 4. Anyone talking about or even notice the bombs going off in the region this week? These type of things tend to deter capital flows from entering. Maybe a clever way to approach is thru options. Selling downside puts and buying upside calls zero cost on a 2-3 week basis or even better (maybe) sell downside put, buy atm call, sell upside call.... All for zero cost....

swiss frank  11:28:13 GMT - 10/24/2022  

USD/JPY.... The intervention is to some a waste of money, to some an opportunity to take advantage of a set back to continue to trade the trend, and to some either skilled or lucky enough to guess right on the timing a happy face emoji.

 Fact 1- Acting alone without any underlying policy change will not change the trend of a weaker jpy.

 Fact 2- If they were serious about changing the trend they would lift the yield cap on 10's. Not gonna happen with the current state of debt in Japan.

Fact 3- Asian tensions are only going in one direction (rising).

This will not be a jpy positive. 165-175 remains a very achievable target and could even be too low.... Maybe.

I also received this from another long-time and highly respected forex forum member prior to USDJPY150 being briefly broken. Note, his line of defense is just below the 165 level cited above.

The level to focus on will ultimately be 192+with the level for them (BoJ/MoF) to truly defend 160-162

The 145 level was stupidity but yes 150 psychological but only in traders' minds not in CB's

Personally, I don’t make long-term forecasts but would be remiss if I didn't post these forecasts given how highly respected the source of them is. For my trading, I mainly focus on what The Amazing Trader is telling me on my charts. In this regard, take a look at what The Amazing Trader is showing on a weekly USDJPY chart. 

In any case, what is clear is the BOJ/MOF’s job is being made more difficult by a generally strong dollar and divergent monetary policies. With that said, USDJPY150 remains a key psychological level that will dictate the whether this pair can push even higher.  

Jay Meisler


Creator, The Amazing Trader


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