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[Forex View] Stupidity of Trading on Data

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The stupidity of trading on a fractional miss in data still amazes me but this is the hand we are dealt.

Take today’s long-awaited US CPI report. The focus is on core inflation, which is forecast to rise by 6.5. % year/year.

Let’s say it comes in at 6.4%, there would likely be a relief rally in risk. But what happens if it comes in at 6.6%?

So, let’s look at the math. If the actual data is 6.44% it would be rounded to 6.4%. On the other hand, if it is 6.45% it would be rounded up to 6.5%

Similarly, if the actual data was 6.54% it would be round to 6.5%. At 6.55%, it would be rounded to 6.6%.

So you can see why I say the stupidity of trading on a fractional miss in data still amazes

me.

The reality is that markets move on a surprise, such as a miss in a data release. However, a fractional miss in data should not be considered a surprise.

Whatever the case, what really matters is the reaction to the data, especially after any knee jerk response to the news as that will give a clue to market sentiment and the current imbalances between supply and demand.

Take surprises out of the market and get in sync with the current imbalance in the market by getting access to The Amazing Trader

Jay Meisler

Co-founder, global-view.com

 

 

 

 

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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