Monday September 19, 2022 - 23:04:14 GMT
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Is there a hidden hand in the EURUSD?
With USDJPY rising to 24-year highs, traders have gone on alert for any signs of possible BoJ intervention, So far, resistance to the steady rise in the dollar has been in the form of verbal intervention, which has, for now, stabilized the currency.
However, looking at a daily chart and the way USDJPY ran into a wall around 145 suggests what I like to call a “hidden hand protecting that level. While there is no way to confirm who or what was protecting 145, it would not surprise me to find out one day that it was a covert intervention by the BoJ through one of its surrogates. This leads to the following question:
Source: The Amazing Trader
Is there a hidden hand in the EURUSD?
While it should not surprise me (or anyone else) to learn the BoJ has been intervening, it would be out of character to find out the ECB has been doing the same.
However, looking at a EURUSD daily chart, the currency has traded below 1.00 (i.e. parity) 18 out of the past 19 trading days (the exception is one day holding above 1.00) but has been unable to maintain sustained momentum to the downside. So, here, too, there seems to be a hidden hand buying EURUSD below parity and keeping from the currency falling further to levels not seen in over 20 years.
Source: The Amazing Trader
While there is no way to determine whether the ECB is covertly intervening or some other forces at play, there seems to be a hidden hand defending the downside.
So, just keep an eye on EURUSD 1.00 as it will dictate whether the hidden hand is sufficient to put a floor under this currency. With so many false starts in both directions over the past month use The Amazing Trader to indicate whether momentum is building on either side for a sustained break from this pivotal level. Note, that the current range is .9864-1.020.
Jay Meisler, co-founder, global-view.com
jay@global-view.com
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