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Wednesday December 22, 2021 - 15:00:22 GMT
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EURUSD: Due for a Breakout or More of the Same?

I am always on the lookout for trading patterns, such as the ones identified by the Amazing Trader. There is another pattern, one of my favorites, that I identified many years ago that has stood the test of time. The pattern develops when a currency trades on both sides of a big figure, otherwise known as a round number, each day.

There is currently a pattern going on for 19 days in the EURUSD (includes one day where the high was 1.1299 and another when the low was 1.1302, which is close enough to 1.13 to be part of the pattern). It is hard to suggest a breakout once the pattern ends as this is a week (i.e. pre-XMAS) that is generally dominated by book squaring rather than fresh positioning.

In any case, it is worth noting as breaks of such patterns, especially one that has gone on for so long, often see a sharp move in the direction of the breakout.  have been updating this pattern on the Global-View Forex Forum as can be seen in the following thread from it:

 

EURUSD 1.13

GVI Forex 14:51:40 GMT - 12/22/2021  JP, just pointing out a pattern that has gone on for nearly a month. I have already talked about a week where liquidity is thinning and book squaring, not positioning is likely dominating by those still trading,

 

Mtl JP  14:39:13 GMT - 12/22/2021  
14:10 - Jay are you anxious ? maybe better to get out of any possy as range trading likely to prevail into and over the holidays.

 

swiss frank  14:32:30 GMT - 12/22/2021  
Looking at the past two extensions of 700-800 away from the 200 day in
Dec-Jan 2020/21 and July-Aug 2020 the consolidations lasted 20-30 trading days. Not to say those were orbiting a single big fig but in terms of consolidating my guess would be maybe we're around 2/3's.... Mean attempts to revert to price in this case.

Keep an eye on Ukraine.



GVI Forex 14:10:05 GMT - 12/22/2021  
I have written about big figure patterns many times over the years. The longer it goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once the pattern is broken. 19 days is very long for such a pattern to go on.

 

GVI Forex 11:26:33 GMT - 12/22/2021  
1.13 trades for 19 th day in a row (high so far 1.1807)

 

Mtl JP  12:35:32 GMT - 12/21/2021  
Jay you currently have 2 ranges to play in
1.13 - 1.1270 and 1.1350 - 1.1250

 

GVI Forex 11:28:22 GMT - 12/21/2021  
1.13 traded for 18th day

(Last 1.1281)

The Amazing Trader

 

GVI Forex 16:15:57 GMT - 12/20/2021  
17 days is more than holiday-induced. Whatever the case this week is likely dominated by book squaring rather than new positioning.

 

Mtl JP  15:53:46 GMT - 12/20/2021  
Jay that sounds like holiday-induced consolidation

 

GVI Forex 15:32:38 GMT - 12/20/2021  
1.13 trades for the 17th day in a row

AT showed the risk on the upside today but still…

The Amazing Trader

 

GVI Forex 14:49:30 GMT - 12/17/2021  
1.13 prints (and broken) => 16 days in a row

 

GVI Forex 14:42:38 GMT - 12/17/2021  
1.1303 (current bid)

Getting close to 16 days in a row but 1,13 yet to print

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex 18:10:09 GMT - 12/16/2021  
Trade around 1.13 extended essentially to 15 days in a row (exceptions were one low at 1.1302 and one high at 1.1299)

See the daily EURUSD chart with the Amazing Trader running on it: At a minimum it would need to take out 1,1382 (guarded by 1,1360), to move out of its range and shift the focus from 1,13, Watch Thursday to see if the pattern is extended for a 20th day in a row.

 

Jay Meisler, co founder, global-view.com

jay@global-view.com

.

 

 

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
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AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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