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Friday September 17, 2021 - 15:10:19 GMT
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[Poll Results] Will the Fed Signal a Bond Taper?

 

As with all of my surveys, such as the one on Brexit which was one of the few that called the outcome correctly, it is the comments from participants that often reveal a lot more about sentiment than the actual numbers.

This was the case in my latest survey, which asked Will the Fed signal an intention to start tapering bond purchases later this year at the September 22 FOMC meeting?

Unlike my other polls, participation was surprisingly light with 66% expecting the Fed to signal an intention to taper bind purchases while 34% expecting no signal. The limited responses were a surprise given the significance of the meeting for all markets so I looked beyond the raw numbers to get a closer feel for the rationale behind the responses.

 

Yes

Believe the Fed will start tapering bond purchases so as not to further increase inflation. I also think that the EU has already stated that it will also be tapering bonds. Are these indications that we may be facing an economic downturn?

The recent shift in economic data has created support for the decision to taper assets purchase in Sept….

Also, the Fed Gov Chris Waller has publicly stated for a Sept taper and is supported by Fed Bank presidents Eric Rosengren, Rob Kaplan, and Jim Bullard. Some others suggest it should be from Oct instead of Sept so it could be…

 

Yes but

Will likely announce a reduction in purchases (tapering). Will probably invoke CNBC to claim it us not actually “tapering”

I am expecting they ll keep taper alive if not actually taper, even if only some symbolic amount. The taper is a signal that the emergency from March is done. expecting players to remain uncommitted into the FOMC meeting hence chop price-moving trading until after that

Fed will temper any announcement with dovish comments.

 

No

New cases and deaths associated with Covid 19 are accelerating which will eventually adversely affect consumer confidence.

The economy is still too weak looking forward.

Likely that the Aug jobs data has pushed out the taper talk until a little later in the year.

i think no change until Feb 2022, and then they will panic...

 

To sum up, the sentiment expressed in the poll was nearly 2/3 in favor of the Fed deciding to taper this year. However, looking beyond the numbers indicated a closer split with some implying the Fed would try and qualify its decision by staying dovish.

So, looking ahead, the reaction, such as in the forex market, to any decision, assuming it is one to signal a taper, may hinge more on what is actually said than a headline that it will start reducing bond purchases.

Jay Meisler, co-founder’Global-View.com  

 

 

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Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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