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Thursday June 17, 2021 - 11:37:48 GMT -

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Fed Lets the Taper Genie Out of the Bottle

The latest FOMC decision, while not signaling any immediate change in monetary policy, put an eventual tapering of Fed bond purchases on the table. Markets reacted accordingly by pushing bond yields higher, stocks lower and the dollar higher.

Why did markets react negatively?

Markets trade on expectations. The expectation now is that it is a matter of when, not if the Fed will start to taper. It is like letting the taper genie out of the bottle. Once you let it out it is hard to get back inside. 

What does this mean for trading?

I will let the economists analyze the FOMC meeting.

I prefer to look at how to trade going forward. In this regard, US economic data will be scrutinized closely for any signs that the Fed is on course with its timeline or is falling behind the curve. The former would allow the Fed to dictate the time to start tapering. The latter would see bond yields rise on expectations that the Fed would have to start scaling back sooner rather than later.

Looking ahead, mark August 27-28 on your calendar when Fed Chairman Powell will speak at Jackson Hole, a time when policy changes are often announced. Whether this means a higher set of ranges for the dollar or more sustained trends remains to be seen. At a minimum, the dollar (and yields) should find a floor in the summer months ahead of this key Jackson Hole event now that an expectation of a Fed tapering is on the table. 

For those looking for the dollar bias, watch EURUSD 1.20 as that will set its overall tone. For those looking to identify when there are trading imbalances and the side to trade, I suggest taking a good look at

The Amazing Trader and its Trading Strategies be your trading guide

Feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

Jay Meisler,

co-founder and creator of The Amazing Trader



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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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