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Thursday April 25, 2019 - 17:34:15 GMT
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Monthly PMI Data Can Move the Financial Markets


John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-

Purchasing Manager Indices Have Been Predicting A higher USD. Although the various PMI indices published each month cannot be argued to be hard data, they do provide a consistent view of the developments in key global economies. The index can run from 0 to 100 in any given month with 50 being the dividing line between economic expansion or contraction. Generally the results tend to fall between 40 and 60, and more often than not they are above 50.

An outcome below 50 is usually viewed as problematic by traders. In the chart below, I have run three month moving averages of key economies, the Eurozone, Japan, the U.S. and U.K. Moving averages are intended to smooth out month to month swings in the data and provide clearer comparisons. We tend to focus on the manufacturing indices, because they tend to respond more quickly to changes in economic activity than the Service PMIs.


You can see in the table below that the charts are pointing towards an economic contraction in the EZ and Japan. Central Bank officials in both countries have expressed concerns about the weak economic production in Japan and Europe. In Japan the BOJ has a targeted yield of 0% in its 10-yr JGB (Japanese Government Bond). In The Eurozone, the key ECB bank deposit rate has been stuck at -0.40% for a good while. Its going to be an extended period of time before European interest rates turn back positive. The markets have become highly sensitive to these reports. For example the Euro has been trading weaker on soft German PMI data.

The table does show the U.S. has been slowing, but it is not in negative territory. The U.K. ii improving as the economy might be getting a BOOST from the weaker GBP as a result of the “BREXIT” negotiations. Keep an eye on developments in the PMI statistics because the can move markets.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 29 Apr 2019
A 12:30 US- Personal Income and PCE Deflator
Tue 30 Apr 2019
A 07:55 DE Employment
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
B 14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Wed 1 2019
All Day PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Jobs

A 16:00 EZ- EIA Crude
AA 12:15 US- ADP Jobs

AA 18:00 US-Fed Decision
Thu 2 May 2019
All Day PMIs <bA 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless

A 12:30 US- Productivity
Fri 3 May 2019
A 12:30 US- Employment



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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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