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Thursday April 4, 2019 - 18:09:43 GMT
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Preview: U.S. Jobs Report for March 2019 -- 5 Apr 19 @ 12:30 GMT

 John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- 

Average Hourly Earnings have become the top item that markets react to most in the monthly employment data. The market consensus is for a mo/mo gain of 0.20% vs. 0.40% in February. Data recently have tend to fluctuate in a range of 0.10% to 0.40%. Watch previous data for revisions. Higher earnings imply higher inflation and higher interest rates and vice versa for lower earnings. Earnings data in recent YEARS have been stubbornly low. Average Hourly Earnings

Chart U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls

Preview: U.S. Jobs Report for March 2019 Due 5 Apr 19 @ 12:30 GMT
Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls typically had been the top item on the list for traders, but recently the focus has shifted to the Average Hourly Earnings Report as noted elsewhere. If you look at the chart below, you will see the six month average has been running nearly dead flat at a gain of 200K per month. The ADP private jobs survey typically is not a reliable single point predictor of the actual employment report. My current focus is on the extremely weak February (+20K) report, but some say the data might have been distorted by the government shutdown. Street forecast are for payrolls to have gained around 175K in March after a meager (distorted?) 20K advance in February.

I will be looking closely at the March data to see if there is any confirmation of the February weakness. I will be looking at the 200K monthly average as my benchmark for a comparison. Mark Zandi of Moodys Analytics,, who compiles the ADP Private payroll Survey each Month, said he feels the Jobs market is turning weak and indicated that the data could continue to weaken. The Street consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.80%.<br<
Non-Farm Payrolls

Chart U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 8 Mar 2019
No Major Data
Tue 9 Mar 2019
A all day Final Service PMIs
AA 14:00 US- Jolts
Wed 10 Apr 2019
AA 09:30 UK- Trade/Output
AA 11:45 UK- ECB Decision
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 17:00 US- Fed Minutes
AA 1:45 UK- ECB Decision
A 01:30 AU- GDP
AA 12:45:00 EZ- BOC Decision
A 13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 13:30 US/CA- Trade
AA 15:00 CA- BOC Decision
A 16:00 EZ- EIA Crude
Thu 11 Apr 2019
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- PPI
Fri 12 Apr 2019
A 14:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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