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Wednesday February 13, 2019 - 11:52:41 GMT -

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Forex: Is EURUSD 1,12 still at Risk?

In my last article, Is the EURUSD Headed for 1.12 and Beyond? , I noted a tendency for the forex market to be fickle by having false starts when trying to build momentum for a trend.

We saw one of those fickle days Tuesday when the EURUSD reversed direction and rallied sharply off a new 1.1257 low.

The wild card was a sharp rise in equities, which in turn saw safe haven currencies (I.e. JPY,CHF, USD) weaken vs. other pairs in a risk on mood, creating a mixed picture for the dollar.

So let’s look at the EURUSD to see how much damage was done to the overall downtrend.

-       Lower high pattern broken

-       Outside day so another day of lower lows but not lower highs

-       Stayed below the Amazing Trader 1.1351 resistance.

-       Did not reach a 38.2% retracement of 1.1514-1.1257

-       Stayed above 1.1215 to maintain the current range

As can be seen by the one hour chart with the Amazing Trader program running on it, there two pockets of resistance above the market that are potential obstacles.

Click for a full screen chart

So has the EURUSD failed in its attempt to test 1.12?

The best we can say is the run at it has paused but as you can see by the chart above, there are formidable obstacles at 1.1351-60 and 1.1395-1.1417 along with a key trendline above the market.

What has changed is the EURUSD will no longer run into key stops on the downside unless 1.1257 is taken out.

Why is this significant?

As I explain in the system you receive when you subscribe to the Amazing Trader package, the forex market lives to run stops. The side where stops are most vulnerable is the side most at risk. This is why the balance of risk shifted to the EURUSD upside yesterday once the low was in (as indicated by the Amazing Trader) as that is where stops were lying.  

So unless the 1.1257 low is taken out, the EURUSD is likely to consolidate with 1.13 setting its tone. Only above 1.1351 would suggest a risk of a further squeeze. On the downside, back below 1.1287 would put the 1.1257 low back on the radar.

Jay Meisler,


Founder, The Amazing Trader




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