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AT Amazing Trader john bland  18:12:36 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 924 vs. 929 (-5) prev.
Oil: 742 vs. 747 (-5) prev.

Total 174 vs. 136 (+38)

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Amazing Trader (AT)  16:57:53 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Atlanta Fed cuts Q4 GDP estimate to 2.7% from 3.2% on Jan 3rd

- Source

New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q4 GDP to 4.0% from 3.9% on 12/29; raises Q1 GDP to 3.4% from 3.2% on 12/29

- Source

Amazing Trader (AT)  16:57:53 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Atlanta Fed cuts Q4 GDP estimate to 2.7% from 3.2% on Jan 3rd

- Source

New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q4 GDP to 4.0% from 3.9% on 12/29; raises Q1 GDP to 3.4% from 3.2% on 12/29

- Source

AT Amazing Trader john bland  15:02:35 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Factory Orders November 2017
U.S. Data Charts

+1.30% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. -0.10% (r +0.40%) prev. rev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  15:01:45 GMT - 01/05/2018  
U.S. ISM Services PMI December 2017
MORE: U.S. Data Charts

55.9 vs. 57.6 exp. vs. 57.4 prev.
Employment sub-component
56.3 vs. 55.3 prev.


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AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:13:29 GMT - 01/05/2018  
two strong cad employment reports in a row increase odds of an early BOC rate hike.

Mtl JP  14:01:26 GMT - 01/05/2018  
odds are 1.25 to 1.2370-ish massive cad$ strengthening giving exports-crazed poloz a migrane. dont be surprized if he or some of his gang's proxy comes out soon with "on the other hand" pi$$ing on the hot cad$

london red  13:59:05 GMT - 01/05/2018  
euro tracking the 10. sup from options by 120/12010. if goes below there may not come back today. would need to look to 11960 11885. while abv 120 still chance to do 121 barrier otherwise for another day.

london red  13:44:44 GMT - 01/05/2018  
maybe all the bad hombres making a run for it from the US ;)
yen 11280-85 needs to hold

Livingston nh  13:42:07 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Where is Canada getting all these "new" workers?
Impressive Q4

AT Amazing Trader john bland  13:37:17 GMT - 01/05/2018  
U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade November 2017
U.S. Data Charts

-50.5 vs. -47.4b exp. vs. -48.7b (r -48.9) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-2.5 vs. -1.2 exp. vs. -1.47 (r )prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  13:36:09 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Canada EMPLOYMENT December 2017


Jobs: +78.6K vs. 1.0K exp. vs. +79.5K prev.
Rate: 5.7% vs. 6.00% exp. vs. 5.90% prev.

RELEASE: StatCan Monthly Employment Report

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  13:34:52 GMT - 01/05/2018  
U.S. Employment November 2017


NFP Jobs:
+148K vs. +188K exp. vs. +228K (r +252K ) prev.
Rate: 4.10% vs. 4.10% exp. vs. 4.10% prev.

Avg earnings: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  13:32:06 GMT - 01/05/2018  
nfp: +148
ahe: +0.30
rate: 4.1%

AT Amazing Trader john bland  10:01:46 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Flash HICP Misses. Impact of higher EUR as PAR predicted?

AT Amazing Trader john bland  10:01:00 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) December 2017

yy: +1.45% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.
yy: +0.90% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  09:20:32 GMT - 01/05/2018  
EZ Retail PMI gains in December 2017...

Eurozone Retail PMI graph

AT Amazing Trader john bland  09:13:39 GMT - 01/05/2018  
Retail PMI December 2017

53.0 vs. n/a exp. vs. 52.4 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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Amazing Trader (AT)  21:11:02 GMT - 01/04/2018  
Reportedly shots fired near the Denver, CO, state capitol - press

- Source

dc CB  16:51:57 GMT - 01/04/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas

Da Bears are in charge. fueled by the predicted "January Thaw" coming mid month. Winter is Over!!!! LOL

Mtl JP  16:33:17 GMT - 01/04/2018  
Dil 15:56 bigger button tiny hands trump-et man freaking out over some book trying to stop it from hitting shelves ROFL

AT Amazing Trader john bland  16:03:44 GMT - 01/04/2018  
Large Crude draw offset by larger combined builds in Distillates and gasoline.

AT Amazing Trader john bland  16:02:04 GMT - 01/04/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -7.400 vs. -5.300 exp vs. -4.600 prev.
Distillates: +8.900 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +1.100 prev.
Gasoline: +4.800 vs. +1.900 exp vs. +0.600 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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Israel Dil  15:56:16 GMT - 01/04/2018  
let's see if Trump falls into this trap

the game changer

AT Amazing Trader john bland  15:36:12 GMT - 01/04/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) -206 vs: -200 expected

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  15:36:12 GMT - 01/04/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) -206 vs: -200 expected

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:45:44 GMT - 01/04/2018  
U.S. Markit final Services PMI December 2017
U.S. Data Charts

53.7 vs. 52.4 exp. vs. 52.4 (flash) Markit PMI Press Release

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  13:31:09 GMT - 01/04/2018  
US Weekly Jobless Claims


250K vs. 244K exp vs. 245K (r. 247K ) prev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  13:16:22 GMT - 01/04/2018  
U.S. ADP Private Employment December 2017
U.S. Data Charts


+250K vs. +190K exp. vs. +190K (r +185K) prev.

RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  09:31:53 GMT - 01/04/2018  
GB Services PMI December 2017


54.2 vs. 54.1 exp. vs. 53.8 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  09:00:42 GMT - 01/04/2018  
Final Service PMIs December 2017


EZ- Final Service PMI December 2017
56.6 vs. 56.5 exp. vs. 56.5 (flash)
55.8 vs. 55.8 exp. vs. 55.8 (flash)

59.1 vs. 59.4 exp. vs. 59.4 (flash)
Markit PMI Press Release

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Mtl JP  23:30:44 GMT - 01/03/2018  
(from original piece in WSJ by Greg Ip)
Another type who sees worry instead of opportunity:

‘If we do have an economic downturn, I worry we will be at each other’s throats.’ - Ray Dalio, founder Bridgewater Associates

Livingston nh  20:39:38 GMT - 01/03/2018  
jp - a transparent Fed would release Transcripts instead of Minutes - Powell is not a True Believer, he is a trained "what answer do you want" - the balance sheet "reduction" is a big deal, the Fed has gone from all short term to all long term holdings, and it has chosen to raise interest rates BEFORE testing market response to balance sheet adjustment

Williams and his unknowable Neutral Rate pose a test for Powell and the new BoG

Mtl JP  20:27:57 GMT - 01/03/2018  
Livingston nh - " Doves are gone"

current crew:
Janet Yellen - confused dove about to ride off onto the garbage heap of history.
Good riddance.

Waiting in the shadow is replacement lawyer and long time deepstate insider Jerome Powell
He is the chicken coop's new ruling rooster: he is supposed to continue - steady as she goes pre-annointed course - liquidating the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet of garbage.
And keep raising interest rates.

The rest of the crew is just semblance of colective wisdom and expertise smokescreen in the kabuki theater:

Randal Quarles - complete idiot re cryptocurrencies but at least he claims to wants the FED to be more transparent (haha)

Lael Brainard - "My own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are..." duh

Bill Dudley - the Dud - is also riding off onto garbage heap of history but only around mid-2018... just in case Powell should go wonki

Kaplan and Harker can be considered "hawk"-ish

chickensh!ts Kashkari and Evans: certified doves
(never seen any worthwhile price moves anytime Kashkari yakked)

2018 voter Mester is definitely a hawk

Bostic... appears clue-less
Bottom Line
- higher inflation is-a-coming OR
- deflationary collapse if Powell doesn’t continue QE in one shape or another with all associated consequences of banks going tits up, bail-ins, stox and bonds go down the sh!t shaft etc etc

Livingston nh  20:07:38 GMT - 01/03/2018  
FOMC voiced yield curve "concern" , it just hit 50 2/10 spread // 4hr charts (dangerous) show a different story from daily on Cable, EUR and CAD

SPX (15 min) went MACD crossover (neg) so watch the FI mkt for 2% 2 yr effect as market seems to be pricing a March hike

AT Amazing Trader john bland  19:11:32 GMT - 01/03/2018  
FOMC still sounding pretty dovish to me...

AT Amazing Trader john bland  19:09:15 GMT - 01/03/2018  
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. December 13, 2017 Fed Policy Minutes
U.S. Data Charts

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Failure to get inflation to 2.00% level a reason to slow rate hikes.

Some worried a yield curve inversion could portend an economic slowdown

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Mtl JP  16:38:51 GMT - 01/03/2018  
3.2% from 2.8% is 14.29% jump
it is easy to fling around numbers when your paycheck does not depend on accuracy / performance

whoever are the PhDs making up the Atlanta Fed collective ?
names... names

Amazing Trader (AT)  16:19:41 GMT - 01/03/2018  
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q4 GDP estimate to 3.2% from 2.8% on Dec 22nd - Source

PAR 15:03:59 GMT - 01/03/2018  
Amazingly strong US economic numbers boost US stock markets to unseen levels .

Question is how many new all time record high closes will
we see this year ?

Livingston nh  15:03:15 GMT - 01/03/2018  
ISM- "The Prices Index registered 69 percent in December, a 3.5 percentage point increase from the November reading of 65.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 22nd consecutive month."

Risk is FOMC Minutes as Market gets it wrong -- Doves are gone

AT Amazing Trader john bland  15:01:46 GMT - 01/03/2018  
big beat in Mfg PMI litte reaction in FX.

AT Amazing Trader john bland  15:01:01 GMT - 01/03/2018  
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI December 2017
U.S. Data Charts


59.7 vs. 58.4 exp. vs. 58.2 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  09:30:59 GMT - 01/03/2018  
Construction PMI December 2017


52.2 vs. 52.7 exp. vs. 50.8 prev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  08:58:25 GMT - 01/03/2018  
Data stronger than forecast.

AT Amazing Trader john bland  08:57:33 GMT - 01/03/2018  
German Unemployment December 2017

Rate: 5.50% vs. 5.60% exp. vs. 5.60% prev.
Change: -29K vs. -13K exp. vs. -16K (r-20K) prev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:45:34 GMT - 01/02/2018  

55.1 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 53.0 prev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:30:53 GMT - 01/02/2018  
Canada Markit Mfg PMI December 2017

54.7 vs. n/a exp. vs. 54.3 prev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  09:31:50 GMT - 01/02/2018  
GB Manufacturing PMI December 2017
U.K. Charts


56.3 vs. 57.7 exp. vs. 58.2 (r ) prev.

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  09:01:56 GMT - 01/02/2018  
EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs December 2017

mfg: 60.6 vs. 60.6 exp. vs. 60.6 flash
mfg: 63.3 vs. 63.2 exp. vs. 63.2
mfg 58.8 vs. 59.3 exp. vs. 59.3

Markit PMI Press Release

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AT Amazing Trader john bland  22:42:13 GMT - 01/01/2018  
56.2 vs. n/a exp. vs. 57.3 prev.

AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:22:44 GMT - 12/31/2017  

December NBS: 51.6 vs. 51.6 exp vs. 51.8 prev.
China NBS PMI Chart

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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