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Forex | GVI Forex | Inner Circle | Calendar | Political | Chart Points

 
Click to refresh 5 mins after data release to update clock
20/07/18 12:30 AA CA Retail Sales con: 1.10% pre: -1.20%
20/07/18 12:30 AA CA Sales x-autos con: 0.70% pre: -0.10%
20/07/18 12:30 A CA CPI yy con: 2.40% pre: 2.20%
20/07/18 12:30 A CA CPI mm con: 0.10% pre: 0.10%
20/07/18 12:30 A CA CPI Median yy con: n/a pre: 1.90%
 

FOREX FORUM
Post Message View: Classic | Thread  Latest Postings  Forum Directory    Archive
BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 12:34 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
Strong CAD data.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 12:33 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
Canada: CPI (June) Retail Sales (May) 2018





NEWS ALERT
Headline CPI
mm:
0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: +2.50% vs. +2.40% exp. vs. +2.20% prev.


Retail Sales
Headline: +2.0% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. -1.20% prev.
X-Autos: +1.40% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer



Euro
HK RF@ 12:16 GMT 07/20/2018
*
To make sure euro(which currently looks to rebound) will continue it's decline against the USD, it is good to see if there will a failure at retest of 1.1750 Res.

Merkel
PAR 12:04 GMT 07/20/2018
I am addicted to POWER .

RED ALERT BULLARD
PAR 11:54 GMT 07/20/2018
Bullard coming soon. Algos ready to.buy ,buy, buy...

Forex Traders: Beware of the News
GVI Forex Blog 10:46 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile

For as long as I can remember the forex market has had tendency to react (often overreact) to news. However, times have changed with liquidity providers replacing bank dealers and the main source of forex pricing, leaving the market without true market makers.

Forex Traders: Beware of the News


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 10:45 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
May rules out any notion of a "hard border" between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI 10:40 GMT 07/20/2018
PM May: Her duty to serve the whole of the UK; need a Brexit agreement for the whole country; EU needs to respond to the White papper - comments from Belfast

- Source TradeTheNews.com

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 10:26 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
The story here is not the interview. The story is HOW, WHEN and IF the Trump statements impact the Fed, other governments and the markets. My view is this is not over.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 10:18 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
interview over nothing new.

Friday Trading Checklist For 20 July 2018
GVI Trader john 09:50 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
Complete Trump interview will be broadcast for the first time at the top of the hour 10:00 GMT on CNBC (15min in duration).

BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 09:49 GMT 07/20/2018
Dillon AL 22:17 consider anti-lock breaks (ABS)
sampling and reacting to conditions 100s of times per second

vs you pressing manual breaks in a curve on icy road

Friday Trading Checklist For 20 July 2018
GVI Trader john 09:38 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
OPINION

When trading forex, you will do best to leave your political views at the door. It took me a while (overnight) to figure out what happened yesterday, and on reflection it has become clear to me what was going on.

My initial response to the Trump comments was that he "misspoke", but now I think I can see what he was up to.

He is looking ahead to November elections. He wants a strong economy and strong stock prices when there is voting underway.

He does not want the Fed slowing down the economy at that time (higher rates). Also, he does not want to see China and others (Europe, UK, etc.) with weaker currencies depressing U.S. exports and stock prices. Recall the Mnuchin "currency gaffe" earlier this year. Well I think Mnuchin just took the fall for a similar situation. People like Navarro (Rasputin?) were watching what was going on and told Trump he had to take action yesterday just as the USD was about to gather some serious upward momentum.

Notice China and India both intervened in support of their currencies today. The big question is Powell and the Fed. There is only one more "actionable" Fed meeting between now and the election (September 26). Market odds in favor of a rate hike at that meeting are now a dead certain 98% in favor of a hike. Lets see how Powell responds to the Trump pressure in the next week or so. Watch those odds like a hawk...

As I said initially, mine is not a political post, to get by in this business you will always do better to leave your political opinions at home and deal with things as they are not as you might wish they were.

Gold at the gate of the abyss.
HK RF@ 09:23 GMT 07/20/2018
*
manila tom 09:05
If the price of the product you need is right, and if the quality is right and if it is USA-made...you will buy it:) unless banned.

Friday Trading Checklist For 20 July 2018
GVI Trader john 09:12 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1645
Pivot Point: 1.1632

This Week: 1.1575-1.1745
Fri: 1.1626-1.1674
Thu: 1.1575-1.1678
Wed: 1.1607-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725

20-day avg: 1.1666
50-day avg: 1.1698
100-day avg: 1.1975
200-day avg: 1.1984


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 96% (98%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.853% -0.3bp
DE: 0.335% +0.3bp
GB: 1.185% +0.1bp

DAX: +4
Implied Open
DJ: -31
SP: +2.1




See the Amazing Trader Live!


Gold at the gate of the abyss.
manila tom 09:05 GMT 07/20/2018
exports? what to export when you go into a trade war?


Gold at the gate of the abyss.
HK RF@ 08:54 GMT 07/20/2018
Buy Gold
Entry: 1210 Target: 1250 Stop: 1195

*
A contrarian trader, can expect a retest of 1250 B4 resumption of price decline.

Gold at the gate of the abyss.
HK RF@ 08:46 GMT 07/20/2018
*
A 1210-support breach means an openning to a further big fall, which means a stronger USD to the dismay of Trump, and maybe other businesses in exports.

One thus can expect another verbal intervention(Friday) to slow the strengthening of the USD.

It is clear, that a too strong USD, will lead at last to big job losses by closures and/or moving production overseas, a process which if gains momentum will not be easy to reverse.



Friday Trading Checklist For 20 July 2018
GVI Forex Blog 08:43 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 20 July 2018


RED ALERT BULLARD
manila tom 08:04 GMT 07/20/2018
yes, they continue buying dips in stox and usdjpy, no fear

RED ALERT BULLARD
PAR 07:15 GMT 07/20/2018
Stocks in Asia reversed losses and yuan recovered its drop amid signs of intervention from China authorities looking to stem currency’s weakness. China banks seen buying Yuan after its fall to 1y low. Dollar sags after Trump shows displeasure towards Fed hikes. US 10y ylds <2.85%

RUSSIA
PAR 07:06 GMT 07/20/2018
Trump sees huge business opportunities in Russia .


Russia should be Europe s natural trading partner but USA denies us access to the Russian market . Crazy Europe .

Russia is our partner , not our enemy .

RED ALERT BULLARD
PAR 06:42 GMT 07/20/2018
Today’s eco calendar is empty apart from a speech by Fed governor Bullard, one of the most dovish, non-voting, FOMC members.

Global dollar strength started influenced trading on other markets yesterday. Overnight moves suggests the greenback lost momentum. This could also take away bids in the US Note future. Risk sentiment is a wildcard for trading.

sell euro, buy usd
manila tom 03:31 GMT 07/20/2018
sold 11652, stop 11685, it has been the theme the whole week, let's see again today target would be yesterday's low

TRUMP
bali sja 03:29 GMT 07/20/2018
AL, apply for that position to find out ;)

TRUMP
Dillon AL 01:44 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
someone explain to me what is exactly an "International Security Policy program director at the University of Chicago" what does he do apart from spout his views and why is this position or job in existence. I thought a Uni was a place of learning and that professors were teachers of one description or another but this title seems to be something else. Or am I being naive

TRUMP
dc CB 00:46 GMT 07/20/2018
These American scholars say the real threat to the U.S. is Russophobia.

"If he [President Trump] means what he said he was right. It would be great to cooperate with Russia — I would go farther, it's imperative... We are eyeball to eyeball in a new Cold War with Russia," begins Stephen F. Cohen, considered among the world's foremost Russian academic experts, while sitting beside John Mearsheimer in this latest Vice interview, who nods his head in approval.

Mearsheimer, a longtime International Security Policy program director at the University of Chicago, questions the now largely cemented narrative created by those who have least understanding of the history of US-Russia relations: "Why won't people engage in a legitimate debate with people like Steve and me? And I believe the reason they won't is they would lose the debate - I'm fully confident of that."

American Cold War Experts: "The Real Threat Is Russophobia"


BREAKING NEWS:
Dillon AL 00:22 GMT 07/20/2018  - My Profile
but disaster strikes = before disaster strikes

BREAKING NEWS:
Dillon AL 22:17 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
Consider this: robotic or automatic cars etc wont be mainstream for imho at least 15 years. GPS cannot distinguish between a floor level nor a lane and is ALWAYS several seconds behind reality.
Consider this: Tesla tried to institute robots for what was considered menial human repetitive tasks however found out 2 things 1. the required programming was too difficult 2. that the human was better at it in the first place so they reverted to using humans.
Consider this: word spell does not know the grammatical difference between there and their and a multitude of other similar.
Consider this: Google translate and similar despite being programmed with the dictionary - by no means a complete version of language it then
- now get this - uses English as on intermediary step language for translations between most language pairs. Now of course there is no way of knowing whether that would be UK US OZ etc versions of what is euphemistically referred to as English. Also the translators whether intentionally or unintentionally often provide sexist translations where, among other things, doctors are men and teachers are women.
Consider this: Google or Siri cannot spell - see previous reference - have difficulty understanding accents in every sense of the word and with their predictive text frequently come up with words 1. that are meaningless to the context and 2. complete and utter different words and on top of every thing think that they know better than I in that they change some of the words that I am typing.
Consider this: we already have people that blindly follow directions on their GPS to the point of going onto trails and up dead ends. IE these people know not how to make a decision for themselves believing everything that they see to be gospel. Well we know how that ends but it starts with.....Have you ever been behind someone in a queue and listened to ..the desk clerk or whomever explain something to these people in front of you and started to get frustrated that they were not actually listening properly and not absorbing the information and requiring everything to be explained several times but then these are the same people to whom one needs to say something like my name is Alex thats aye elle eee x but then for what is a very military nation (The US) very few actually know how to spell using the phonetic language
so it would be pointless saying Alpha Lima Echo Xray.
Consider this: Algos in the financial world make money by virtue of being market makers IE they are all about volume and flow. No volume and no flow they are as dead in the water as any human however ALL Algos have a human behind them whether that be purely a risk manager or just someone who when things gets slow flashes price change. Yep it is illegal but try and catch them especially where the regulatory officers have very little if any market background but being lawyers all think that they can wade through millions of lines of code.

I'll take my chances that as a human I can still outwit a machine for the foreseeable future because I can duck and weave and think on my feet and smell when something does not seem right and make an instantaneous decision but disaster strikes. We are a very very long way away from Kit or Hal.

BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 21:01 GMT 07/19/2018
dc CB 16:09 why good luck ?
market makers / dealers lurk for dissertations by politicians / central bank cretins 24/7
think they do that manually ?
-
one has to get out of prehistoric cave and smoke signals and leap forward and adopt lurking robots variously programmed to watch for and react to price dynamics impulses . It is 2018 afterall.

Friday Trading Checklist For 19 July 2018
GVI Trader john 19:47 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1643
Pivot Point: 1.1632

This Week: 1.1575-1.1745
Thu: 1.1575-1.1678
Wed: 1.1607-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725

20-day avg: 1.1666
50-day avg: 1.1698
100-day avg: 1.1975
200-day avg: 1.1984


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 98% (98%)





See the Amazing Trader Live!



Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 July 2018
GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 July 2018


Friday Trading Checklist For 6 July 2018
GVI Forex Blog 19:14 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 6 July 2018


TRUMP
PAR 17:57 GMT 07/19/2018
Imho Trump respects nobody and nothing .

TRUMP
PAR 17:56 GMT 07/19/2018
Trump = Bullard . Why did he not name him FED president ?

TRUMP
GVI Trader 17:54 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
13:52 (US) White House Sanders: President Trump respects teh independence of the Federal Reserve Related ()

- Source TradeTheNews.com

TRUMP
NY JM 17:42 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
My guess is that when Trump talks about the dollar his main focus is on China but fx market reacted as a whole.

In any case, these news reactions, how rationale or not, seem to have become a daily occurrence.

TRUMP
PAR 17:33 GMT 07/19/2018
Trump organisation and Trump family have a lot of debt and not a lot of equity ?

Basic Economics
PAR 17:29 GMT 07/19/2018
Low taxes > Huge budget deficits > Higher interest rates

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 17:24 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
13:03 (US) Pres Trump: Not happy about interest rates going up at the Fed; Strong dollar puts the US at a disadvantage - CNBC taped interview excerpts
- Fed rate hikes may be poorly timed and will put the US at a disadvantage while other central banks maintain loose monetary policy- "I am not happy about it. But at the same time I'm letting them do what they feel is best."
- Fed Chair Powell is a good man
- Chinese currency is dropping like a rock

- Source TradeTheNews.com

BREAKING NEWS:
HK Kevin 17:19 GMT 07/19/2018
Should be "economic recession"

TRUMP
PAR 17:19 GMT 07/19/2018
Trump , the new guy in charge of the FED .

Surrealistic .

BREAKING NEWS:
HK Kevin 17:17 GMT 07/19/2018
What does President Trump actually want? Lower interest rate, lower trade deflict, and now weak dollar. That will translate to lower economic growth

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 17:10 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
USD spikes down on Trump comments on interest rates and the dollar

Amazing Trader always gives you levels to trade in the heat of battle.

The Amazing Trader


Gold MAY drop to 1087$/Oz (CHART)
Bali Sja 16:37 GMT 07/19/2018
Agree RF@, technicals are saying usd bulls are having big party this year. I'd like euro 1.08xx first. Gold 1180>1050>980 eventually.

BREAKING NEWS:
dc CB 16:09 GMT 07/19/2018
Good Luck trading the TRADE TALKS Headlines.

BMW CONSIDERS SHIFTING U.S. PRODUCTION TO CHINA ON TRADE RISKS

20 mins later

BMW DENIES SAYING SHIFT OF U.S. PRODUCTION TO CHINA CONSIDERED




BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 14:30 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
(BCF) +46 vs: +56 expected

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
Mtl JP 14:21 GMT 07/19/2018
GBP 1.30
looks like GBP sceptics have given up now that puppy is back N of 1.2983 after a feeble attempt lower (LOD 1.2958)

BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 14:13 GMT 07/19/2018
ambassador is confident. noted.
-
that is after reuters report from July 18:
"“We have had very good sessions with Mexico and with the new president of Mexico, who won overwhelmingly, and we’re doing very well on our trade agreement,” Trump said to reporters ahead of a meeting of his cabinet at the White House.

“So we’ll see what happens. We may do a deal separately with Mexico and we’ll negotiate with Canada at a later time. But we’re having very good discussions with Mexico.”

may
may not
loves me
loves me not

-----------
Bottom Line
usdcad slight bull bias
with current s/t res around 1.3250/60 zone

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI 14:02 GMT 07/19/2018
Canada Ambassador: remain confident will end up with a trilateral agreement on NAFTA - Trumps call for bilateral talks not a surrise - Source TradeTheNews.com

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 14:01 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
U.S. Leading Indicators June 2018
U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
0.50% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -0.20% (r) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


CHINA
PAR 13:56 GMT 07/19/2018
US companies make $ billions transferring technology to China and Trump blames the Chinese .

Skin in the game .

Doubts Starting to Surface About An August 2 Bank Of England Rate Hike
GVI Forex Blog 13:54 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile


June U.K. Inflation Data Miss Consensus Estimates Markets were surprised on Wednesday after the June CPI data fell short of street estimates. The month on month CPI was uchanged at 0.0% vs. estimates for a gain of 0.20% and the yr/yr reading was 2.40% vs. 2.60% estimated. Core CPI was 1.90% vs 2.10%. Headline CPI remained above its target, but well below the six year high of 3.10% set in November. Following the release, street probabilities for an August 2 rate hike fell to 74% vs. 83%. Some also are taking note of the recent declines in crude oil prices will start to flow into CPI data in coming months...MORE.

Doubts Starting to Surface About An August 2 Bank Of England Rate Hike


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 13:44 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
Reports of earthquake in Mexico City no details.

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
Mtl JP 13:43 GMT 07/19/2018
Yield Curve Watch

Caroline Baum
Opinion: The bond market goes its own way
The economy is strong, inflation is rising and the Fed is tightening,

so why aren’t 10-year yields higher?


Gold MAY drop to 1087$/Oz (CHART)
HK RF@ 13:02 GMT 07/19/2018
*
By about same proportion Euro MAY drop to about 1.04, using the H&S formation on the weekly.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Low
GVI Forex Blog 13:01 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Down.
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart
<Click on chart for over seventeen-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Low


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 12:58 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT

207K vs. 220K exp vs. 214K (r. 215K) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Gold MAY drop to 1087$/Oz (CHART)
HK RF@ 12:56 GMT 07/19/2018


*

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 12:34 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
U.S. Philly Fed Index July 2018



NEWS ALERT

+25.7 vs. +20.0 exp. vs. +19.9 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

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