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ECB - NPL s
PAR 09:39 GMT 04/26/2018
Biggest decision by ECB today will be to postpone or even cancel actions on the solving of its € trillion NPL problem .

Draghi is a major expert on creating NPL ' s and he no longer wants to talk about it . If there is a problem , let the taxpayer pay .

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
GVI Trader john 09:19 GMT 04/26/2018  - My Profile
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEGATIVE

This Week: 1.2155-1.2245
Thu: 1.2155-1.2189
Wed: 1.2173-1.2239
Tue: 1.2181-1.2225
Mon: 1.2197-1.2290

Spot EURUSD: 1.2174
Pivot Point: 1.2194

20-day avg: 1.2303
50-day avg: 1.2317
100-day avg: 1.2214
200-day avg: 1.2009

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Jun 13: 94% (94%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.015% -0.5bp
DE: 0.618% -1.2bp
GB: 1.515% -2.4bp

DAX: +2
Implied Open
DJ: +7
SP: +5.0




AUD
Sydney ACC 09:11 GMT 04/26/2018
Two items published in today's Sydney Morning Herald.
1, House prices in Sydney fall 2.6% in the March quarter. Predictions of a further 5% this year and another 5% next year.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/house-prices-in-sydney-drop-26-per-cent-over-march-quarter-domain-group-data-20180426-h0z5p4/?utm_campaign=strap-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link&ref=pos1

2. Bank stocks dived as UBS referred to a Price Waterhouse report released at the royal commission that suggests serious deficiencies in the banks mortgage portfolio. For example where some borrowers stated loan to income ratios of four per cent they are in fact greater than 7.5 times. Westpac's sharte price fell 4.5% while other banks' share prices fell in tandem.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-dives-as-ubs-raises-loan-concerns-advises-to-sell-the-stock-20180426-p4zbsx.html


Currencies
PAR 08:51 GMT 04/26/2018
Too boring to watch or to for now . Luckily there are other futures to trade .

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
GVI Forex Blog 08:51 GMT 04/26/2018  - My Profile
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium


Thu 26 Apr 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 27 Apr 2018
AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
A 08:00 DE- Employment
A 08:30 GB- GDP
A 14:00 US- University of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018


Science of Trading
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 08:09 GMT 04/26/2018  - My Profile
We approach trading as a science rather than gambling or speculation, and have put our logic to work in a formal presentation called Science of Trading This includes a live Q&A where you can ask questions or submit them beforehand.

Click on the link below to request details.

Contact us for details

How surrealistic low has ECB put Euro interest rates ?
PAR 06:48 GMT 04/26/2018
"Good morning on ECB day from Germany where the main interest rate should actually be 3.55% acc to Taylor rule, way above ECB rate of ZERO, given record low unemployment rate and the risk of an overheating economy."

Macron
PAR 06:45 GMT 04/26/2018
Oil prices rise as Macron said he believes Trump will pull out of Iran nuclear accord.

Daily Trading Ideas And Analysis
STG AndersenBands 01:17 GMT 04/26/2018


Highlights going into Thursday, , 26 April-

The short-term momentum heatmap has continued to define the price action (see prior posts).

Short-term momentum remains intact for the leader (USD) and the laggard (NZD). However, both of these have moved significantly and are at extreme levels. The risk has elevated for new positions and would suggest tightening profit stops.

Range expansion is anticipated soon for $AUDCHF $AUDJPY $EURGBP $GBPJPY and $NZDJPY. Some of these could be explosive.

Price range relative to typical levels is fairly low across the board. This can be seen with an excerpt from the daily dashboard in the image with this post. The values show price range in percentage of what is typical.

Make it a great day!

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
dc CB 01:16 GMT 04/26/2018
fwiw
the 5 ended the CASH session at 2.835
I don't have a link to today's LIBOR to give but Yest the
USD LIBOR - 3 months 2.36167 %

http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/libor/american-dollar/american-dollar.aspx

go figure. bu this can't go on with this trajectory

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Mtl JP 00:45 GMT 04/26/2018
Livingston nh courtesy zh : beyond just theory and prognostication here is someone with beef in the burger

Mystery Bond Trader Makes Massive Bet On Transatlantic Yield Curve Reversal


FANG Landia Today
dc CB 22:27 GMT 04/25/2018
FB rpts = Boffo
FACEBOOK 1Q REV. $11.97B, EST. $11.41B
FACEBOOK 1Q EPS $1.69, EST. $1.35,

INCREASES BUYBACK BY $9BN
Facebook effective tax rate: 11%

Two-thirds of the entire population of the US and Canada supposedly logs in to Facebook at least once a month

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 25 April 2018
GVI Forex Blog 21:50 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 25 April 2018


pivots-s&p
Mtl JP 21:18 GMT 04/25/2018
jj u r right - just FX

Science of Trading
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 20:49 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
We approach trading as a science rather than gambling or speculation, and have put our logic to work in a formal presentation called Science of Trading This includes a live Q&A where you can ask questions or submit them beforehand.

Click on the link below to request details.

Contact us for details

pivots-s&p
lkwd jj 20:38 GMT 04/25/2018
i havent seen the s&p updated since 01/25/2016. on gvi

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
Dillon AL 20:26 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
jp the point is that even if you strip out EU QE the EurUsd is cheap

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
Mtl JP 20:13 GMT 04/25/2018
AL cat walking on keyboard ?

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
Dillon AL 20:07 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
Jan 2014 the EurUsd was trading between 1.3475 and 1.3775

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
Dillon AL 20:06 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
July 2011 the EurUsd was trading between 1.38 and 1.45

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
Mtl JP 20:03 GMT 04/25/2018
moRE MORE ! higHER HIGHER !

fast is good; faster the betTER; rocket is BESTEST:

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose 3.1 basis points to 3.019%, trading around its highest level since January 2014.

The benchmark would have to push above 3.047% to match its highest level since July 2011.


pivots-s&p
Mtl JP 19:38 GMT 04/25/2018
lkwd jj 18:49 I use

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables
GV Forex Pivot Points

for the day - keep it simple.

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018
GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium


Thu 26 Apr 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 27 Apr 2018
AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
A 08:00 DE- Employment
A 08:30 GB- GDP
A 14:00 US- University of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist For 26 April 2018


Mega Short Squeeze
lkwd jj 19:03 GMT 04/25/2018
2649 resistance level

nikkei
Dillon AL 19:02 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
jj regular hours local time 9-3:15 that also includes the lunch break

and yes your observation/comment not turning out the way one though 48 to 24 hours ago I agree with but we shall see

Mega Short Squeeze
PAR 19:02 GMT 04/25/2018
What did you expect . S&P held support and goes testing resistance .

Draghi will do the rest !

nikkei
lkwd jj 18:55 GMT 04/25/2018
today isnt turning out the way it looked like it would be yesterday, with stox not collapsing.but tomorrow is another day....

pivots-s&p
lkwd jj 18:49 GMT 04/25/2018
JP my platform shows both daytime and extended hours trading . which set of HLC do you use to determine pivots ?

pivots-s&p
lkwd jj 18:49 GMT 04/25/2018
JP my platform shows both daytime and extended hours trading . which set of HLC do you use to determine pivots ?

nikkei
Dillon AL 18:47 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
jj yes

nikkei
lkwd jj 18:35 GMT 04/25/2018
Al >>>> did you sell it ?

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
PAR 18:33 GMT 04/25/2018
Rothschilds really understand wealth , buying power and diversification.

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Mtl JP 18:02 GMT 04/25/2018
PAR for you (from GVI Archive)
enjoy!
-
Mtl JP 21:19:37 GMT - 11/22/2011
Bob Scully interview with Baron Rothschild, November 2007

Q.- Well, Baron Rothschild, I welcome your wisdom on that, and with your permission, sir, in the next half of the show, I’d like to tap your wisdom on money… on public debt, on Wall Street, on excesses, recovery, recession, depression… all these things that are assaulting… that are assaulting our senses these days… that’s all we read about in the papers, and I’m sure you’ve got a lot to say about that. So I’ll be right back to this chat with Baron Guy de Rothschild, talking to us from Paris. Be right back.

[BREAK]

Q.- Hi, welcome back. This is Bob Scully, and I’m speaking with a guest who’s sitting in Paris, but he could have been sitting in London or any number of cities, because his family, as we mentioned earlier, was one of the first multinational families, one of the first to succeed in various countries at the same time. He’s Baron Rothschild. Guy de Rothschild… he’s of the French branch, but speaks excellent English. But , Baron, as I mentioned, just before we left for the break, you were a banker for a number of years, and now retired from business, but your family, as we were discussing, created so many instruments in the financial world, like letters of credit, like transportation of valuables that didn’t involve physical means. When someone like you saw all the leverage on Wall Street a few years ago, you must have thought it was the same vision gone wild… I mean people buying companies with 1% equity. You must have shaken your head and thought it would never work. How did you react to that?

R.- Well, first of all, there was some really absurd behavior… absurd behavior happening, which… the absurdity being that it was accepted. I’m not talking about the illegal… the cheating. That’s a segment of its own. But the fact of people accepting to lend banks or individuals… to lend money on what? PayPal, hopes, good looks… I don’t know anything… it’s totally absurd. I don’t think that the inflation of those particular things we are referring to really upset the economy. But obviously it didn’t help… it didn’t help. I don’t think that… really it was too small in comparison to the whole world economy, which is always in play in any of these things, to have a world effect. It has certainly had a very bad moral effect. You know, when I think back on a time when… I believe you were still only a promise, in the middle of the 1920s, and when I became little by little conscious a little later of what had taken place in the huge slump, the famous October 29 collapse of Wall Street, you know, when the theatrical newspaper, I’ve forgotten its name, magazine…

Q.- Variety.

R.- Variety came out with the big title “Wall Street Lays an Egg”, which has become famous. Um… and in the early thirties, no one understood why… what’s wrong, what’s different between 32 and 28 if you like, because the mechanisms of inflation, creation of money or destruction of money, were not understood or had not been analyzed… I mean, it was a science that didn’t exist. But a little later, when it started being understood, it became obvious to even an amateur like myself that what had happened in Europe, and in America… more in America than in Europe was there really a fabulous inflation between 1922, 24 and 29. Speculation, creation of money, everyone was borrowing… everyone was speculating on anything, so therefore there was a real creation of money. Really a fabulous inflation that took place, and as things don’t go to the sky, there was one moment that trips on anything… the detail, whatever it is, someone asks to be reimbursed, and the whole thing, which is a bubble, bursts. And… and it bursts in the most dramatic way, naturally in the end, as you know.

Q.- Yes, and now… now we’re worried about something else… another kind of bubble, something relatively new in the world economy… it’s not the stock market that has the biggest bubble or the most worrisome one. It’s rich western governments, and it hasn’t been for capital expenditure like after the war… it’s for operating expenses. It’s not Latin America. It’s Europe, North America, and it’s just to pay the grocery bills. That’s a bubble… that’s very scary. What do you think of it?

R.- I believe that money owed by one country to another, or one country to banks, or whatever it is… it will never be paid back. It could only be paid back by borrowing more, which is the same thing… it won’t be paid back. The situation is what it is. Loans were… loans were made to South America… practical none have or will be reimbursed. The countries were broke. So… or to Africa, so it has to be consolidated… if it’s done by banks, it has to be consolidated by governments.



Q.- But is there a risk of massive deflation? Will, for instance, Canada and the United States that owe a lot of their money to foreign banks in Japan or elsewhere… can they go broke?

R.- No… it doesn’t work that way. If you look historically, you realize that borrowing and at the later stage government borrowing, or borrowing from one country to another on the virtual governmental level, something that has always existed that has grown ever since, I don’t know… King Solomon, with his silver mines in Israel or in Palestine. And it has never been reduced… the total volume of indebtedness has grown faster or slower, depending on time, but it has never disappeared… it has never been contracted. Impossible. What happens is… as time goes on, currencies go down. Now I’m not talking about the currency of one versus the other. I’m talking of… the…

Q.- Buying power.

R.- Exactly. The buying power of even… leaving out all form of voluntary evaluation, of floating or whatever it is in the currency… the buying power of currencies goes on forever… and goes down. I mean, the buying power… the demolition or the erosion goes on forever, and that’s why… I mean, world indebtedness is bearable, because actually the more erosion of the buying power is against the creditor, the chief creditor in fixed terms, and the power that he has, the buying power that he has acquired goes down and down and down and down…

Q- But that takes us away from deflation and… Baron, and brings us back to the psychology of inflation, which encourages the borrowing in the first place, and that’s why, I guess, some people in North America are starting to say, well, let’s print some money and get out of the mess the easy way.

R- Yes. But now that’s a different aspect… it’s a different aspect because, in one case, I thought you were asking about what I call global indebtedness, that including… including the case of Canada and America, which is not an important one, because you are so much part of the same community. The same economic community. But therefore that’s one thing. Now the other thing is that people fear that right now the slump, the depression… call it as you like, is due to disinflation, which is the opposite. I don’t know if it is or not. It’s extremely difficult and only very, very, very clever specialists can give you the answer… they’re usually wrong. So we leave that out… but if there is this inflation, or, if you like, an equilibrium, which is neither disinflation or inflation, maybe a very, very small amount of inflation would help it. Or at least fighting potential disinflation… it could only be worthwhile if it’s done on a world scale… world being the whole developed… developed economy of the world. And then in a very, very, very controlled way. Inflation as such is morphine… it’s morphine when you have a pain, and then you kill the pain for a time, and then you die, because of the medicine… so…

Q- Because you’re addicted.

R- Yeah… well, because it kills you. You know what I mean… some people want a painkiller, people who are very sick… and I tell you, well, you might get well, but if you use that painkiller, it will finish you off. And… so that inflation is a painkiller, and, in most cases than others, it’s a lethal painkiller. So therefore one has to resist it… whatever is the urge. But a very limited amount of reflation… is one of the words used in my country… worldwide, highly controlled, strictly controlled, maybe would be helpful, but it has to be universal, because otherwise, if… let’s say France alone gets some inflation, the benefit of the inflation will be immediately outside of France, and not for the benefit of the French. And it will go, I don’t know, to Japan, to Germany, to wherever, to be now used, and the damage will remain for the French later.

Q.- Well, Baron, you’ve had plenty of wisdom for us…and you’ve given us good medicine for the world economy, and food for thought, and none of that will finish us off I’m sure… and I wish you, sir, good luck and good health.

R- Thank you very much indeed. I appreciate doing this very much.

Q.- I hope you enjoyed meeting Baron Rothschild. He didn’t get a chance to tell us how to reduce our taxes… too bad, I was just getting to that, but maybe next time. And until our next show, this is Bob Scully, have a great way. Thanks.

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
PAR 17:46 GMT 04/25/2018
US markets turning positive as apple to get new presents from Trump and Draghi will keep printing money like there is no tomorrow .

Auctions
dc CB 17:30 GMT 04/25/2018
Today's 5Y auction priced (2.837%) where the 10Y was trading one week ago

Treasury Sells 5Y Paper At Highest Yield Since Sept 2008 To Lukewarm Demand


Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Livingston nh 17:26 GMT 04/25/2018
jp - Treasurys are currency w/ a coupon so as safe as money

Domestic purchasers put in their dollars and get same dollars back - inflation erodes the purchasing power but your advantage is that at least part of the fixed yield offsets that loss

Foreigners convert to dollars w/ added risk of currency loss and/or gain - theory says higher US rates good for higher USD (but everything is relative) which means MORE local currency

SO SAFE at maturity -- everything's GOOD

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
lkwd jj 17:26 GMT 04/25/2018
point taken.

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Mtl JP 17:21 GMT 04/25/2018
jj think u r missing a zero or two

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
lkwd jj 17:17 GMT 04/25/2018
oops ! i leaked the secret message trump has for china if they dont get with the program on trade front !! can you imagine gold up $200 in a day ?

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Mtl JP 17:12 GMT 04/25/2018
jj 17:03 here is my wet dream:
your name is munchkin and you are sending that Achtung Default Imminent (ie this weekend after market closes) memo to china and Tokyo. But before u do u send it to you buddies In The Circle - which includes me. *..*

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
lkwd jj 17:03 GMT 04/25/2018
i never said i agreed with that theory. it might have been old school when rest of world was less developed, but with china japan and russia eurozone coming into markets , i dont think its relevant anymore. $ is not alone anymore. we can default like greece and italy the way they spend in the swamp these days.

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Dillon AL 16:54 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
jj hence why I asked for a definition of safe.
Default could obviously be one definition. Loss of capital clearly another

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Dillon AL 16:54 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
This from March 2nd

Safe assets


Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
lkwd jj 16:53 GMT 04/25/2018
i was under impression that the safety was due to the fact that the us wont default....

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Mtl JP 16:51 GMT 04/25/2018
in this context:
Rising yields can cause heartburn for investors. After all, U.S. government bonds are considered the world’s safest asset, which means that moves can send ripples through global financial markets.

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Dillon AL 16:47 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
define safe

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
Mtl JP 16:38 GMT 04/25/2018
TIA to all who would
Indulge me :
U.S. government bonds are considered the world’s safest asset.
True
False

FANG Landia Today
Dillon AL 16:19 GMT 04/25/2018  - My Profile
My mother would use the expression and she used to be a ballerina amongst other skills. No I was not around back then thankfully

FANG Landia Today
Mtl JP 16:10 GMT 04/25/2018
AL 16:04 - so u around 1940 - 2018 = 78 - say 15 as a teen ...
and u still trading ? hopefully not because u have to LoL


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium


Mon 23 Apr 2018
A All Day- Flash PMIs
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 Apr 2018
AA 01:30 AU- CPI
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- CB Confidence
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
Wed 25 Apr 2018
AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Apr 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 27 Apr 2018
AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
A 08:00 DE- Employment
A 08:30 GB- GDP
A 14:00 US- University of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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