Saturday October 21, 2017 - 12:38:44 GMT
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Commitment Of Traders Report for 17 October 2017 Data Register To Test Your Amazing Trader
Forex trading is all about stops. The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is an imperfect, but useful, "sampling" of market positioning. I would prefer more frequent and precise readings, but we have to live with what we get. The data work for the purpose of getting an idea if traders are positioned long or short and if they in big or small.
EURUSD net long positions remain in a roughly steady 80-100K contracts range. The heavy blue line (once a week spots) provides a useful perspective on the price action. In the latest week the market has slipped through the bottom of its prevailing 1.18 to 1.20 band. The EURUSD has been looking suspiciously capped at 1.2000.
As the alternatine reserve currency to the USD, keep in mind EUR positions are not just against the USD. EUR crosses vs. the JPY and GBP are critical. The European economy continues to improve and that should remain a EUR positive.
The market remains long USDJPY (short JPY). The North Korea threat has faded but remains an ever-present issue. Whenever North Korea tensions escalate, JPY demand surfaces as conceerned Japanese investors repatriate funds back home. Given Japan's proximity to the Korean Peninsula, one might have expected funds to flow in the opposite direction.
The USDJPY pair has always been heavily manipulated by the Bank of Japan. It typically tries to keep the currency depressed to promote exports. Whenever the USDJPY starts to slide, expect to encounter covert BOJ USDJPY support. The USDJPY often correlates positively with the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note, which recently has started to climb.
Net GBPUSD positions flipped long three weeka ago, but are now back almost back square. BOE Governor Carney recently turned the tone of policy statements to hawkish. U.K. economic data had been becoming more constructive, but they might be turning mixed. The GBPUSD spot line (heavy blue) has been reflecting this changing outlook for the U.K. economy.
This GBPUSD pair is more sensitive than most to its economic data. This characteristic makes it more attractive to those of us who rely on active markets. Keep an eye on the EURGBP cross as a barometer of flows in and out of the EUR. These flows often directly impact both units against the USD so should be watched by active traders.
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